While Indian focus has been focused on our western borders since the Pahalgam tragedy of April 22, some major geopolitical changes are taking place on the eastern front of India.
The Awami League party is first banned by the interim government of Bangladesh. The party, established by Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has ruled the country for its existence as a sovereign state since December 1971, until the rebellion in the country in the last August forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India, where she has since been built.
‘Human corridor’
The second major geopolitical change, which has far-reaching effects for India, is a clear plan of the Bangladesh Interim Government, supporting the Rakhin State in Myanmar with the US and the United Nations. The border of the entire state along with Myanmar is controlled by the rebellious Arkan army. And, since the Rohingya refugees are fleeing from the state due to the atrocities committed by the Arkan Army, the corridor, it is alleged, it is a human undertaking low and a route is more and more route to the Arakan army to facilitate the supply of Myanmar.
There are rumors that aired about a potential “coup” within the army parallel, ie against the current army chief, General Waqar Uz Zaman. In this context, last month the visit of General of Moscow is particularly important for India.
‘Current friendly relationship’
On 7 April, Zaman paid an official visit to Russia, where he has given Russian Deputy Defense Minister, General A. Foomin, and head of the army, met with Oleg Salukov, as well as representatives of defense firms Roostake, Rosoboronsport and Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear agency oversee the construction of Roppur nuclear power in Bangaldesh.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the parties “discussed the possibilities for cooperation in the defense sector and expressed mutual determination to further strengthen the current favorable relations between the people of Russia and Bangladesh.”
Shortly thereafter, the Russian ship Admiral Tribes, Admiral Pentelev, and Tanker Pichenga, Docks from the Russian Pacific fleet squadron, was docked at the chutogram port. This was the first time Russian Navy ships had visited Bangladesh in 50 years, marking an important milestone in relations between the two countries, according to the Russian Embassy in Bangladesh in Bangladesh.
read between the lines
The journey is also important for its time, reference and subtext. The first fact is that it comes under the supervision of an interim government. Following the incidents of last August, Bangladesh is under a acting administration headed by Mohammad Yunus, in which his government was closely aligned with the country’s Islamist lobby. Fast, radical organizations and elements are gaining strength and control in the country under Younus’s watch.
The journey comes from Bangladesh and even after two high-profile visits. The first US Army officer, Pacific Deputy Commanding General, Lieutenant General Joel P. There was a visit to Dhaka by Wavell, who held meetings with Zaman. There has been a lot of speculation about the trip, with a long rumor rumors about deploying American bases in the region as part of American interest in Myanmar and part of the West Indo-Pacific strategy. Bangladeshi media reported that the discussion of Wavell and Zaman revolves around military differences, security cooperation and potential defense procurement from the US.
Soon after, Muhammad Yunus left for China on a four -day visit.
Why America doesn’t care about Dhaka
Yumns has given most of his power to the US, especially for the democratic administration of former President Barack Obama. Now, Sheikh Hasina had raised a voice on opportunities on the occasion of fear of people wishing to install bases in Bangladesh, due to which she did not allow and because of which she says, America wanted to exclude her. By that end, although India was closely aligned, the Hasina government also tried to save Bangladesh to join the Chinese investment, defense deals and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The current Trump administration in the US is not very fond of Yumns, dating back his dislikes in 2016, when the latter made a big donation to the Clinton Foundation when Hillary was running for the President against Clinton Trump. He also made unnatural comments on Trump’s winning. Well -well in his new term in the office, Trump has not demonstrated any special interest in Dhaka, while calling it out for attacks against minorities. Given the uncertainty around the current US administration’s approach to the interim government, Younus is connecting China.
Growing friction with India
In Beijing, Younus pledged $ 2.1 billion in Chinese investment, loan and grants for Bangladesh. Many Chinese companies promised $ 1 billion in the Chinese industrial economic sector in Chatogram. China also promised a $ 400 million in the loan to upgrade the Deep-C Mongla port and accelerate a possible free-trade agreement.
On the same visit, Younus also stopped India by inviting China to invest in Bangladesh, “only the Ocean only patron for this region” and “landlocked” ranked as the gateway of the northeast of India. Earlier this month, in response to the posture, India canceled a transmission agreement, which allowed Bangladesh exports to transit through Indian ports. This is not all. 70% of Bangladesh’s defense procurement comes from China.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh has also seen a disgusting dynasty in fundamentalism and extremism. Minorities are being targeted, and until some time ago it seemed like just a fringe movement – the demand for establishment of a Sharia state in Bangladesh – is rapidly taking the center. Along with the main Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, diverse affiliated groups are also bouncing, often armed. Women, in particular, are at the end of stress. At the time of writing this piece, the Islamic groups in Bangladesh were issuing threats and warnings to the interim government against the implementation of the proposals of a Women’s Reform Commission.
Zaman is fighting a lonely fight
The institutions of Bangladesh are broken, and the police is a spent force. Only the army intact, is anti -radical, and is often encountered with Islamists. Zaman has indicated failed law and order in the country many times. After several army meetings, after the deployment of military personnel and security forces across the country, especially in Dhaka, raised rumors about a adjacent coup. In fact, rumors also roamed about Zaman, which was facing coup from the Islamist sections in the army. In a video that has now gone viral, Zaman said, “Later you will say that I have not warned you, so I am warning you. If you cannot forget your differences and work together, if you will continue to mourn each other, fight each other and kill each other, then the country’s freedom will be wasted.
The interim government of Bangladesh has opened doors for more engagement with Pakistan, including contacts between the two countries and ISI militants. Given the Islamist inclination that the Pakistani Army has taken under its current chief, General Asim Munir, who previously led the ISI, it is quite possible that Zaman can be raised against more Islamist elements within the Bangladesh Army. It will be welcomed by both Yunus and his backchers.
Against this background, Zaman’s visit to Moscow fulfilled three objectives. One, it threw Joseph a gountlet, challenged the interim government, and indicating that the army was in -charge and could take over if necessary. The second goal was to balance China’s presence, especially in the defense sector of Bangladesh; 70% of Bangladesh’s military procurement is from China. The third thing was that the yatra showed that Bangladesh does not desire to align itself with any block and wanted to maintain its strategic autonomy by diversifying the country’s military alliances and strengthening defense relations with Russia.
India and Russia have worked together in the past
In this context, and especially in view of Pulwama attacks and Operation Sindoor, the entry of Russia in this equation can be beneficial. Both India and Russia have a long history of cooperation in Bangladesh. In fact, in 1971, Bangladesh’s liberation credited its success for Russian support in the United Nations Security Council, and also military. Roppur nuclear power plant, being built by Russia in Bangladesh – According to reports, it is the most expensive infrastructure project in the country – some Indians are also there. When Russian oil was banned in view of the Ukraine War in 2022, Dhaka used Indian ports to unload Russian oil. The two nations can once again cooperate with General Zaman to keep the Islamists in the Gulf, ensure Dhaka’s multi -polar approach in their external relations.
West, against the boycott of Russia, develops a relationship with Bangladesh, with the axis of Moscow, including Asian countries, is neatly converted to the global south. The army is the only institution to struggle with the growing tide of Islamism in Bangladesh, and India should support it. The Yunus -led government has already enabled Pakistan’s entry into Bangladesh, strengthened relations with Turkey, and now Azerbaijan has asked to open its embassy, ​​disqualified to India for another country. A Russian appearance in Bangladesh, rather than reviving the Cold War alignment, can enable multipolacularity in the Gulf of the Bengal region, balance the presence of additional regional actors here.
(The author is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
