So America is in action, India did not ask with an arbitration proposal. You heard Vice President JD Vance, which is a very important Indian connection with a difficult negotiator, saying that America’s India-Pakistan had “no business” in the war. This is a sea change from the past when the White House will call Pakistanis to Washington and give them a dressing. In fact, the funeral of the Pope received more coverage than a war, with many actors in shadow. But no one is interested. It is hardly surprising, given that struggle, war and casualties in thousands are now part of everyday life. Think about Gaza, Ukraine, Yemen, Myanmar, and yes, Pakistan.
This time there are new actor supporting old agendas. In short, the background of Operation Sindoor is anything different from India and Pakistan and the past includes Pakistan. Our future strategies need to be kept in mind.
Two tracks at US position
It is curious. On 24 April, US President Donald Trump strongly condemned the terrorist attack at Pahalgam that the US stood with India. On 8 May, the State Department did the same. But India changed the tone after starting a strike against Pakistan, the President called it ‘shame’; The state spokesman said that Secretary Rubio had spoken to Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and mourned the ‘loss of civil life’. In short, there was no recognition after a terrorist role.
On 9 May, Vance made his comments, “We [the US] Not going to be involved in the middle of a war, which is fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with the ability of the US to compete. “Another reed -out a day earlier, which” confirmed the United States commitment to work with India in the fight against terrorism “.
America keeps its hands closed
In short, two schools are operating. One focuses on ‘America first’, and the second wants engagement, but only to one point. Note that the US has washed its hands of mediation on Ukraine, a case that would usually have been a main area in its foreign policy. It has to be configured in our posture. Unlike previous administration, the current US dispensation has no idea of all the history of India-Pakistan, or the fact that every goal bombing in India is described, down at the address, in the US list of nominated terrorist organizations.
In addition, even as a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 9 May – where America is the largest shareholder – announced a $ 2.4 billion disbursel for Pakistan, the Pakistani Prime Minister called the National Command Authority meeting, something that was seen as a clear threat to escape. After sending that message, it thanked everyone and welcomed the arbitration. Pakistan has now been trying to do so for at least three decades. In the eyes of Islamabad, this struggle has been an unqualified diplomatic success, even if his army has been defeated.
What IMF has to say about its loan
Worse, the basis of IMF for another loan for Pakistan was that “the authorities have demonstrated a strong program implementation”. The purpose of the body established after World War II was to ensure economic stabilization; It rests on the major objective of the underlying underlying conditions “required for financial and economic stability. A country that is engaged in fueling should hardly be in that category.
The past is not an example
Consider previous examples when Pakistan provoked its nuclear weapons. It is now clearly documented how, in 1999, due to the use of air power, the then Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, participated to an appeal to help Washington to help Washington ending a war, causing it to a large extent. Not only President Bill Clinton, but also Tony Blair – and Russia – were involved in ending that struggle. The read-out then said, “President Clinton and Prime Minister Sharif shared the idea that the current fighting in the Kargil region of Kashmir is dangerous and it includes the seeds of comprehensive conflict. They also agreed … that the line of control in Kashmir is honored by both parties as per the 1972 Simla Agreement.” There was no nonsense about mediation or American resolutions.
There was also ‘Operation Purkram’, which was held on 13 December 2001 after Jaish-e-Mohammed attacked the Indian Parliament. Not only was the Defense Secretary Rumsfeld land in Delhi, but Japan and Britain were also involved in reducing stress. Then, during the 2019 Balakot air strike, American participation was clear under pressure on Pakistan to release the Indian pilot. Due to this, President Trump intercepted Kashmir at least three times during his earlier tenure. They were politely, but strongly reprimanded. And this time too, there is a possibility of happening.
New actor in game
Now, a look at the new actors involved.
The first is Azerbaijan, which has supplied Pakistan with defense equipment and also expressed “strong support” for this. The country has increased its defense production, and the supply of equipment includes laser weapons and is also built by the formidable Bairakar TB -2 – Joe, by the way, Turkey. The drone made his mark in the Nagorno-Karbakh war.
Then Türkiye is, with its military cargo aircraft in Karachi on 8 May. A Turkish warship was also in Karachi a few days ago. Pakistan already has Turkish drones, including a full -armed craft with a 1,500 kg payload and an operational range of 6,000 km. So far, Pakistan has allegedly used only 10 km range song, which is capable of firing machine guns. It is easily transportable and cheaper, and can literally be purchased by ‘kilo’. Pakistan may also have removed a long distance Chinese missile. Türkiye is also usually a ‘cat’s claw’ for China when it does not want to join directly. Now this can happen.
Chinese Checkers
China is hardly a new partner, which has been given its decade participation in Pakistan’s missile and nuclear capabilities. Some 80% of Pakistan’s total traditional weapons list is now Chinese. At least one PL -15 missile was used by Pakistan and was almost retained. Chinese was a disgrace on social media when Pakistan had falsely claimed that a Rafael was dropped by its forces. The unconfirmed report also pays attention that a Chinese aircraft has been brought into missiles from its own shares.
So far, however, after condemning the first terrorist attack, China has continued calling for calm from May 8 and suggested that the international community plays a creative role. Most of the irony is that President Xi was seen smiling respectfully at Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow when it was stopped by a BRICS meeting of National Security Advisors on 30 April. This was a lot to say on counter-terraceism, everyone fell into the flat that no member gave any reference to the ongoing struggle.
Russia is still in the game, and is searching for ways to advance its defense industry. But it is hardly a heavyweight partner now. Moscow, Bhi, has gone back to “full support” which was initially expressed to India. Sergei Lavarov offered an arbitration, and a conversation with the Defense Minister of Pakistan. This is a complete break from the past. There is no way that Delhi can ignore it.
What do we need to accept
To do yoga, India is forced to a ‘Do It Yorself’ mode, in a world that is inspired by bloody wars and where allies are also divided.
First, while the US is busy with its music chairs in transferring or throwing out the top officials, it clearly wants a hand in the ‘management’ of South Asia. We have seen it in the first dim past. Our foreign policy Mandarins may need to revaluate their position not only on the quad (which is India, America, Japan and Australia), but also all bilateral commitments to the US.
Second, one Pakistan-China air war, with access to Chinese satellites, is a reality. We need to rethink our entire strategy in the air.
Third, while Brahma and S -400s were our Ace cards, any further investment in Russian systems means ending Ukraine War. Anyway, we can have some arbitration of our own.
Fourth, a new block has emerged. India can start working with Türkiye, and can also help Armenia. Israel is also helped in Azeris. This may be the time to keep Israel more busy, although it may cause some American inconvenience when talking about real defense deals.
In other words, we are working completely in the new environment, where friends may have turned into enemies, although not the contrary. The bottom line is, you are on your own. The Government of India has clearly stated that there is nothing on the table other than firing. Expect more trouble as Pakistan again gets its terrorist property. Eventually, the US has clarified the existence of these camps in the country. We have not ended yet.
(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
