In early 1999, the subcontinent stood in a prefix. Both India and Pakistan announced nuclear capabilities last year. The future of this region depends on whether the state skills can overridge military adventures. Then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif tried to seize the moment with the Lahore announcement, a framework, which was to resolve disputes including Kashmir, through dialogue and restraint.
But as Mr. Vajpayee’s bus rolled in Lahore and hands were being joined hands at the Grand State Bhoj, in the command of Pakistani soldier, General Parvez Musharraf, already occupying strategic heights across the Line of Control in Kargil. These positions were evacuated by Indian soldiers for winter.
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Mr. Musharraf, who was appointed by Mr. Sharif as an army chief in October 1998, neither consulted nor informed the civil leadership of his operations. This was followed by a complete war in Kargil’s heights and India’s final military control in July 1999. Till October 1999, the coup was staged by Mr. Musharraf. Mr. Sharif was arrested, his government rejected, and Pakistan was once again directly under military rule.
Rapid forward by 2025. Pakistan remains a hybrid democracy in the best form. While civil governments are elected in Islamabad, real power is located somewhere else in Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistan Army.
His army with India can be encouraged deep inside the Pakistani region, targeting terrorist camps, General Asim Munir of Pakistan, who became the army chief in November 2022, somehow finds his country under pressure to match his words with action after a long conversation to defend his country.
Offer Shahbaz, Munir’s Rise
A low-discussed aspect of the 1999 coup, Mr. Musharraf had a back-channel proposal for Shehbaz Sharif-replace Nawaz as Prime Minister and get the support of the army. Shahbaz refused and alerted his elder brother. This option may have preserved the unity of the Sharif family, but it has greatly reduced the army overrech.
Shahbaz, now in a role organized by his elder brother, finds himself standing next to Mr. Musharraf’s ideological successor General Munir.
While Mr. Musharraf styled himself as a liberal modernity, General Munir embraced a more religious nationalism. General Munir has often called for Islamic imagination and vocabulary in his speeches. General Munir recently said that Kashmir is the “Jugular vein” of Islamabad and that Pakistan “will not forget it”.
He said, “Our attitude is absolutely clear, it was our vein of thunder, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle,” he said.
1999 shadow in 2025
Like 1999, Kashmir is central for India-Pakistan dynamic. After the deadly initiative terrorist attack, where 26 people were killed, India launched airstrikes on Pakistan, accusing them of sponsoring and keeping terrorist groups safe. Operation Sindoor was not only the most expander cross-border strikes conducted by India since the Balakot operation.
According to government sources, Indian Intelligence combined satellite imagery, human sources, and intercepted communications to establish the use of specific compounds by groups such as Jai-e-Mohammed (Gem) and Lashkar-e-Taba (Let).
Pakistan responded by firing across the border. A day later, India targeted and neutralized Pakistani air defense radar and systems at several places including Lahore.
Right now, the pressure is on General Munir, with all his explosions, what will he do further.
While General Munir has not faced the status of Shehbaz as the leader of his nation, history has once again reiterated a decent and a fierce military general as a backdrop by facing questions on his future with Kashmir.
