The Modi government’s decision to go for caste census in the next population census is not completely unexpected. Although it marks a major conceptual change from the Hindutva point of view of preparing a joint Hindu family undivided by the caste, there were enough indications that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was preparing to cut the bullet after its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Not only an important National Democratic Alliance (NDA) colleague – Chirag Paswan of the people of the people – Modi government soon speaks in favor of a caste headcon, which was soon received after the post, but the Rashtriya Parayak Sangh (RSS) also stamped the approval for the proposal, which returned in the final September.
Reversing the historical resistance of the Sangh for a caste headcon, a spokesman said that the organization had no objection provided that results are used for the welfare of the society, not as a political equipment.
This Modi government was left to make a formal announcement at the time of its selection.
It’s all about obc vote
On its face, the immediate inspiration for the decision appears to be the upcoming assembly elections in the caste-run electoral scenario of Bihar. However, a close analysis reveals concerns beyond Bihar.
The disadvantage of the pole in 2024 has extended deep apprehensions about the party’s OBC (other backward classes) votes within the BJP. This base creates the basis of BJP’s growth in power and its irreversible grip on election system. The result showed some erosion in northern and western India. But it was a fall in Uttar Pradesh that shook him. Among this most important of all BJP strongholds, the party’s seat Tally increased to 31 at the high level of 62 in 2019, with two India Block Partners, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress.
The limit of concern over transferring OBC loyalty can be seen from the fact that the government has chosen to gamble the caste census amid tension with Pakistan, which has been stopping the entire security establishment since the April 22 terror attack in Pahgam.
Two big concerns for BJP
The two factors seem to have inspired the government to find time for domestic politics, even it holds a meeting after a meeting to check a fitting response for provocation in Pahgam. There is an internal assessment that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and his India’s block partners are sometimes sharply receiving traction for a caste census with a sharp but constant demand.
The BJP hopes to defeat the Congress and India blocks in their game and blunt their campaign about the idea of census and its owner. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav unknowingly announced the decision to the cat and dropped out of the bag with a strong attack on the Congress. He dedicated most of his briefing to destroy the party to oppose a caste census for a long time in the government. Of course, he explained the idea of his own party about the history of resistance to the idea and the fact that just before the 2024 parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also opposed it.
Can a census cure breaking?
However, the biggest concern seems to be a continuous quarrel between the state’s upper caste Rajput Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath and BJP’s OBC MLAs in Uttar Pradesh. The latter is taking pot shots in the latter east since Lok Sabha results were announced. Strong support from the RSS stabilized Yogi’s rocking boat, but stress has not reduced. Recently, at the end of March this year, BJP MLA from Loni, Nand Kishore Gurjar publicly slammed the Yogi government and entered the Chief Secretary, Manoj Kumar Singh with his hand.
Gurjar is just one in a line of OBC MLAs, who have been in Loggerheads with Yogi, as is the BJP’s allies, who are head of OBC parties, such as Anupriya Patel Apna Dal and Sanjay Nishad of Nishad Party. Although Patel is a Union Minister in the Modi government and Nishad is a cabinet minister in Uttar Pradesh, both have crossed the swords with Yogi from time to time.
The assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are more than a year in early 2017. But the BJP hopes that the announcement of a caste-based census will heal to break and bring back the OBC voters that may flow.
Pulling a VP Singh
Caste is a slippery slope, as any student of current Indian politics will know. The late Prime Minister, VP Singh, gamble with the implementation of the Mandal Report, which gave the OBC 26% reservation in government jobs and schools. It was a condensed political step, inspired by his resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister Devi Lal and the fear of his minority government. Singh calculated that Mandal would win him the support of 85% of the voters, including OBCs, Dalits and Muslims.
Singh was excluded from power, but he earned himself a place in history, which changed the political scenario of North India. His Mandal bomb beneficiaries Ram Manohar Lohia and Karpuri Thakur were the successors of the socialist heritage of Thakur, who fought a long and tough fight for the more inclusive social system involving OBC groups.
Along with the national census, the BJP’s announcement of a caste headcount is also inspired by politics. The irony is that the BJP fought with Mandal Kamandal, Or Hindutva, and strong. But today, it seems that at this time it has decided to put Hindutva on the back burner and borrow a leaf from VP Singh’s playbook.
This is a risky gambling. Time will tell if the BJP is capable of navigating the troupe 3.0 while maintaining its Hindutva basis.
(The author is a senior Delhi -based journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
