The Canadian election may have been accepted to some extent by the trade war of US President Donald Trump, but within the country, Canada changed a political corner. In many ways, the Canadian election results have shown how it has shifted to the field since last election in 2021. First, the Liberal Party has made a expected comeback with some seats with some seats with the required majority to form the government. In its fourth gradual mandate, the Liberal Party has shown a remarkable flexibility in maintaining popularity. However, this time, the external factor in Donald Trump was more concluded than its steps towards the political revival of the liberal party. Second, the change of face of Liberal Party for Mark Carney from Justin Trudeau was a major factor in shaping the party’s consolidation in a few months. Third, except for two major parties – Liberal and Orthodox – The vote share of all other parties, the most depth, the new Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagamet Singh shrunk compared to the previous election in 2021. These changes have translated to the face change of Canadian politics as both Jagmeet Singh and Pierre are unable to keep the pooleriar with them.
Carney has some space to transfer
Now with the Canadian election behind us, further work for the upcoming Prime Minister Mark Karney is malicious. The Liberal Party won 168 seats – the need for outdoor support in the House of Commons – out of the majority. The most potential partner is the new Democratic Party (NDP), although its low strength in this election makes it a junior ally. NDP, who saw a significant decline in his vote share – up to 11.6% – faced his most symbolic shock with his leader Jagmeet Singh’s loss, which failed to maintain his seat. For India, this is notable because the NDP called the supported elements of the Khalistan movement surrounding India-Canada relations. With Singh’s departure and weak mandate of the party, this aspect of Canadian politics may now fade. Meanwhile, Carney’s liberals require only four to five additional MPs support, meaning that the impact of NDP on the policy – especially foreign affairs – will be tempered. This gives the carney room to chart its own way, especially on economic and international affairs.
Carney’s credibility as a central banker with global standing – first leads to both Bank of Canada and Bank of England – provides credibility to him when economic issues dominate. The Canadian economy has struggled in recent years, and with both its largest trading partner and nearest geographical neighbor of the United States, most of Ottawa’s foreign policy will be inspired by economic realities.
Governing
For the orthodox party, this election was a major setback. Leader Pierre Pilevre lost his seat in rural Ottawa, which he had held since 2004. His trump -style rhetoric – reflecting conservative populistism in the United States – eventually failed to resonance. In fact, Donald Trump has repeated attacks in Canada, which is called the “51st state” and ridiculed Justin Trudeau as “ask the governor”, triggered a nationalist backlash among the Canadian people. Instead of weakening the liberals, Trump’s comments created an integrated moment for the country, in which Carney benefited from the wave of patriotism. This was followed by a comprehensive symbolic protest: Canadians canceled the US trips, pulled American wine from store shelves, and even sold property in American cities.
Carney stood above the ground to a large extent during the campaign, which transferred the mood of the public to their favor. But now, he faces a difficult task of ruling a stressful relationship with Washington. Although, with Trump especially after the election and post-election calls have been indicated to moderate their tone with Carney, the actual test will come on issues such as business, tariffs and resource sharing. Should Trump start his hard-line stance again, may start destroying the political capital of Carney.
Pay attention to diversification
For Canada, which is highly dependent on American markets, diversification may now be a requirement. Nevertheless, Asia – Relations with the two largest economies in China and India – currently at a low point. Diplomatic deadlock with India in the last one year, Trudel’s Hardip Singh Nijar has repeated references to handle the case and repeated references for alleged Indian intervention, has left bilateral relations tense and stable. However, the emergence of carney provides a possible reset. As a fresh face without Trudeau’s political item, and as someone who is widely seen as practical rather than ideological, he has the opportunity to rebuild Canada’s foreign policy. For New Delhi, it can be a window carefully, but creatively to join again. While a dramatic upgradation in bilateral relations can occur premature time, fundamental underpinning – strong economic relations, Indian migrants grow in Canada, and people remain intact.
(Harsh V. Pant is vice president, Orf. Vivek Mishra Fellow, America, ORF)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
